New research shows impact of climate change on food insecurity in Africa

A new set of reports has been published exploring how early warning systems can better serve dryland communities in the Horn of Africa, helping communities anticipate and prepare for recurring climate and food security shocks.

Farming communities have extensive indigenous knowledge for weather forecasting and strong traditions of information sharing. However, climate hazards are becoming harder to predict using traditional methods alone as climate change disrupts historical patterns. At the same time, younger generations increasingly rely on modern technologies, creating opportunities to blend different knowledge systems.

Understanding the challenge

In a study commissioned by the Jameel Observatory for Food Security Early Action and the Data for Children Collaborative, and sponsored by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Urban Foresight worked with research partners to review existing early warning approaches, identify gaps in infrastructure and data, and examine the role of community-based systems.

The study drew on academic research, policy analysis, and practitioner insights. Local perspectives were central to the review, ensuring that findings were grounded in real-world experience and responsive to the needs of those most affected.

Key findings

Across the countries studied, communities emphasised the value of indigenous knowledge and well-established local information networks. However, climate change is disrupting familiar seasonal patterns, and increasing interest in blending indigenous knowledge with modern forecasting.

The research found persistent challenges with more modern early warning systems:

• Warnings can arrive too late, be unclear, or lack local relevance.
• Infrastructure constraints such as connectivity, phone access and charging, can limit reach.
• Trust can be undermined when forecasts do not align with outcomes experienced on the ground.

The reports that cover Ethiopia and Kenya recommend strengthening early warning and anticipatory action through deeper community involvement in design and feedback, clearer and more geographically precise information, multi-channel communication through trusted routes, and investment in the enabling infrastructure.

Blended systems built with communities that integrate scientific and indigenous knowledge offer significant potential to improve relevance, build trust and strengthen preparedness.

This project reflects Urban Foresight’s commitment to helping communities and organisations take effective climate action through inclusive, evidence-based approaches.

For further examples, read about our work leading a national Net Zero Accelerator Programme, or supporting community capacity-building for a just transition in Ireland.

If you would like to discuss this work or Urban Foresight’s wider international work on resilience, climate risk and inclusive innovation, please contact hello@urbanforesight.com.